Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
